Marketing is Math

Understanding Marketing

Many Founders struggle to understand marketing.

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And it’s not their fault, PR articles and hyped-up pitches by agencies portray marketing as a magic pill which will solve all their growth woes.

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I discuss marketing with Founders in a different way.

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Here’s my approach to marketing:

Marketing is Math 

Every goal should be about improving a number and every action should be aimed at improving the probability of hitting that number.

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Let’s go deeper with one of the most common challenges faced by Founders:

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Scenario #1

0-1 marketing can be very challenging - you have little understanding of consumer needs, your product is constantly changing and you have limited resources.

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Therefore, you want to be laser focused on acquiring customers. 

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Goal: Acquiring the right customer at the lowest cost

Number: Minimize CAC

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Action 1: Randomly select channels OR go with popular channels

Success Probability: 50%

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Action 2: Selecting channels based on researching user needs and behavior, via surveys and talking to friends (10% time spent on research)

Success Probability: 60%

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Action 3: Selecting channels based on researching user needs and behavior, via surveys and talking to friends and talking to your TG (30% time spent on research)

Success Probability: 75%

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Action 4: Selecting channels based on researching user needs and behavior, via surveys and talking to friends and talking to your TG, understanding competitor strategies (40% time spent on research)

Success Probability: 85%

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Now I want you to focus on the increase in success probability, not the actual values (these are just representative). With more research you get a better understanding of the customer but the trade-off is on time spent on research.

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Each Founder will have a different level of confidence with each probability, personally anything above 75% is enough for me to make a decision.

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Scenario #2

Goal: Increasing brand awareness

Number: Maximize Impressions/customer

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Action 1: Running ads only on the highest ROI digital channel

Success Probability: 30%

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Action 2: Running ads only on the top 3 ROI digital channels

Success Probability: 50%

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Action 3: Running ads only on the top 3 ROI digital channels + Reach & frequency campaign on the biggest reach channel

Success Probability: 65%

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Action 4: Running ads only on the top 3 ROI digital channels + Reach & frequency campaign on the biggest reach channel + Regular ATL/BTL and PR campaigns

Success Probability: 80%

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This is just one of many brand awareness strategies, but the goal is to increase impressions per customer. We can do it on only one channel or distribute it across multiple digital and offline channels to increase success probability.

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Next time someone suggests a marketing tactic or you have to choose between two different strategies - evaluate them in terms of success probability.

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May the (marketing) odds be forever in your favor!